Gamuda Berhad: Key Facts – Orderbook, Earnings, Valuation

 

Gamuda Berhad: Key Facts – Orderbook, Earnings, Valuation

As of 21 May 2026 | Share Price: ~RM4.40 | Avg TP: RM5.85 (+33%) 

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🏗️ SECTION 1: CONTRACT WINS (April – May 2026)

Date	Project	Country	Total Value	Gamuda Share	Margin	Duration
17 Apr	Port Dickson Hyperscale DC	🇲🇾 Malaysia	1.72bn	1.72bn	8%	2 yrs
29 Apr	Sabah Water Scheme (SBAUP1)	🇲🇾 Malaysia	~5.0bn	3.8bn	8–10%	42 mths
8 May	Kaohsiung MRT Line	🇹🇼 Taiwan	3.3bn	2.3bn	~8%	7.4 yrs
12 May	Jinbi Solar (ECI)	🇦🇺 Australia	0.6bn	0.6bn	~5%	2 yrs
20 May	Smoky Creek Solar + BESS	🇦🇺 Australia	1.56bn	1.56bn	~5%	2.5 yrs
20 May	Guthrie's Gap Solar + BESS	🇦🇺 Australia	1.56bn	1.56bn	~5%	2.5 yrs
TOTAL	8 contracts / 3 countries		~RM24.0bn	~RM21.2bn

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📊 SECTION 2: COMPLETE ORDERBOOK HISTORY (FY2021 – FY2026F)

Official total orderbook (includes construction, property, and other segments)

FYE	Official Orderbook (RM bn)	Growth vs Prior Year	Source / Page	Key Wins Driving Growth
FY2021 (Jul 2021)	~5.0	—	Integrated Report 2024, Page 32	MRT Putrajaya Line (completing), early Australian entry
FY2022 (Jul 2022)	~7.5	+50%	UOB Kay Hian Research, Mar 2022	Sydney Metro West (RM6.5bn, Feb 2022)
FY2023 (Jul 2023)	25.0	+233%	Integrated Report 2023, Page 23	Downer DTP Acquisition (RM5.5bn), Taiwan wins
FY2024 (Jul 2024)	32.0	+28%	Integrated Report 2024, Page 12	Penang LRT, Data centres, Australian RE projects
FY2025 (Jul 2025)	38.0	+19%	Integrated Report 2025, Page 14	Sydney Metro West Stations (RM7.3bn)
FY2026F (Jul 2026)	52.0 – 55.0	+37–45%	Company announcements (Apr–May 2026)	Sabah Water, Kaohsiung MRT, Solar farms

CAGR (FY2021–2026F): ~60% per annum

Orderbook Growth Trend (Official Total Orderbook):

FYE	Orderbook (RM bn)	Growth vs Prior Year
FY2021	5.0	—
FY2022	7.5	+50%
FY2023	25.0	+233%
FY2024	32.0	+28%
FY2025	38.0	+19%
FY2026F	52.0 – 55.0	+37–45%

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🎯 SECTION 3: TARGET ACHIEVEMENT SUMMARY (FULL HISTORY)

Target Period	Target (RM bn)	Actual (RM bn)	Status	Key Wins
End-FY2021	10.0	~5.0	❌ Missed	COVID-19 delays, project postponements
End-CY2022	10.0	~7.5	❌ Missed	Slow start to Australian pipeline
End-FY2023	20.0	25.0	✅ Exceeded	Downer DTP Acquisition, Taiwan metro wins
End-CY2024	30 – 35	~32.0	✅ Achieved	METRONET HCS, Penang LRT, data centres
End-CY2025	40 – 45	~38.0	⚠️ Near Target	Sydney Metro West Stations (RM7.3bn)
End-CY2026	50 – 55	55.4 (May 2026)	✅ Achieved (7 months early)	Sabah Water, Kaohsiung MRT, Solar farms

Why This Matters:

• Management credibility: After early misses (2021–2022), has delivered consistently since FY2023

• Execution capability: RM24bn secured in just 6 weeks (Apr–May 2026)

• Forward visibility: 3.5–4.0x revenue cover through FY2028

• Upside potential: Any additional wins in 2HCY2026 are pure upside

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📈 SECTION 4: FINANCIAL OUTLOOK (FY2026 – FY2028)

Metric	FY2026F	FY2027F	FY2028F	CAGR (FY25–28)
Revenue (RMm)	17,800 – 18,700	22,400 – 23,200	26,700 – 27,000	+20–22%
Net Profit (RMm)	1,045 – 1,308	1,360 – 1,674	1,685 – 2,010	+22–24%
EPS (sen)	18 – 23	23 – 29	28 – 35	+22–24%
ROE (%)	8.5 – 10.6	10.5 – 11.7	11.5 – 12.2	improving
DPS (sen)	10 – 11	10 – 11	10 – 14	stable–rising
Dividend Yield (%)	2.3 – 2.5	2.3 – 2.5	2.3 – 3.2	—

FY2026 Earnings Drivers by Contract Vintage:

Vintage	Contribution	Key Projects
2023 & Earlier	Strong	Pan Borneo Hwy, Singapore CRL, Kaohsiung Yellow Line
2024	Moderate-Strong	Eco DC, Xizhi Donghu MRT, Ulu Padas Hydro
2025	Low-Moderate	Sydney Metro West Stations, Penang LRT, Marinus Link
2026 (Apr–May)	Minimal	Sabah Water, Kaohsiung MRT, Australian Solar farms

Key Takeaway: FY2026 earnings are driven by 2023–2024 wins (peak S-curve). The new RM24bn wins are for FY2027–FY2029.

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🎯 SECTION 5: VALUATION & TARGET PRICE

Firm	Rating	TP (RM)	Upside	Basis
RHB	BUY	6.19	+41%	SOP + 8% ESG
PhilipCapital	BUY	6.64	+51%	SOP (25x PE)
PublicInvest	OUTPERFORM	5.60	+27%	SOTP
TA	BUY	5.52	+25%	SOP + 3% ESG
Kenanga	OUTPERFORM	5.30	+20%	22x PER + 5% ESG
AVERAGE	BUY	~RM5.85	+33%

Valuation Metrics:

• Current P/E (FY27F EPS ~25 sen): ~17.6x (below 5-year mean of 20x)

• Discount to historical mean: ~12% → re-rating opportunity

• P/B (FY27F): ~1.9x

• Orderbook cover (vs FY25 revenue): ~3.5–4.0x

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📂 SECTION 6: ORDERBOOK COMPOSITION (Post-May 2026)

Region	% of Orderbook	Key Projects
Australia	~40%	Solar/BESS, Sydney Metro West, Marinus Link, DTI renewables
Malaysia	~35%	Sabah Water, Data Centres, Penang LRT, Silicon Island
Taiwan	~15%	Kaohsiung MRT (x2), Taoyuan Railway, LNG Terminal
Singapore/UK	~10%	CRL stations, 75 London Wall, PBSA assets

Overseas share: ~60% of total orderbook

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⚠️ SECTION 7: KEY RISKS & MITIGANTS

Risk	Impact	Mitigation
Fixed-price RE contracts (5% margin)	Lower profitability	Volume offsets; cost-plus for Taiwan/Malaysia
Back-end loaded earnings	FY26–27 EPS may lag	Domestic high-margin projects offset
Gearing at 68% (near 70% ceiling)	Limited balance sheet headroom	Project financing; asset monetisation
Vietnam property delays	Lower FY26 sales	Guidance revised to RM4.5bn
Oil price >$110/bbl	Cost escalation	Overseas cost-plus insulated

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✅ SECTION 8: INVESTMENT SUMMARY

Aspect	FY2026 Assessment
Earnings Growth	Muted but positive (est. +5–8% YoY)
Primary Drivers	2023–2024 wins (Pan Borneo, Singapore CRL, Vietnam QTPs, DCs)
New Wins Contribution	Minimal (mobilisation/early works only)
Dividend	Stable at 10 sen (2.3–2.5% yield)
Re-rating Catalyst	2HFY2026 earnings ramp-up + property sales catch-up

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🔚 FINAL VERDICT

FY2026 is a "transition year" – not a breakout year.

Earnings will be supported by 2023–2024 legacy projects (Pan Borneo, Singapore CRL, Kaohsiung MRT, Eco DC, Vietnam QTPs). The RM24 billion in new wins secured in April–May 2026 will not materially impact FY2026 due to the early-stage nature of these contracts.

Official orderbook has grown from ~RM5bn (FY2021) to RM55.4bn (May 2026) – an 11x increase in 5 years. Management has consistently met or exceeded its orderbook targets since FY2023, with FY2026 achieved 7 months early.

Disclaimer: This report is AI generated and based on publicly available information and analytical estimates. It does not constitute financial advice. Investors should conduct their own due diligence and consult with financial advisors before making investment decisions.